Fundemental Analisys part2
Hi all,
On previous FA topic I’ve explained lil’ bit about FA’s ‘key economic’ for Major pair.
Today I will giving ‘few tips’ on trading FA for EUR/USD Pairs.
All About EUR/USD :-
Making headlines around the globe, the EUR/USD is perhaps the best known pair in the world! For the past 3 years it’s been making high after high, but a reversal could send the price plummeting! In the meantime, it provides plenty of trading opportunity as it ranges between extended breakouts.
The euro has been called the “anti-dollar” since it is highly sensitive to US data. Because the recovery in the US has been uncertain, the market closely watches developments in the US economy to determine the strength of the recovery. Fears that the US is hitting a “soft patch” in its economic growth generally boost the euro.
Though the EUR/USD actively trades 24-hours a day, the most action is concentrated in the time when the US and European banking hours overlap, from 7:00 AM EST to 10:00 AM EST. Of all the majors, this pair best reflects how the US economy is doing compared to the rest of the world.
What moves EUR/USD?
Surprises in US economic releases This pair is hypersensitive to US data and will move when results come as a surprise- especially indicators that measure growth or recovery in the US.
Talk of Euro as an alternative reserve currency Because the US dollar is held as a reserve currency by many banks around the world, a diversification into euros would drive the value of the euro up causing a sharp move in the pair.
Interest rate differentials As the Fed raises interest rates, money will flow into the US as investors move to capitalize on these higher returns, boosting the value of the dollar.
Trade Deficit Because the imbalance of more imports vs. exports has the potential to reduce the value of the dollar in the long run, the market is very concerned with the trade balance in the US. Changes can cause a big shift in the value of the US dollar.
Fundamentals to Watch
FOMC Rate Decisions.Watched closely since any increases in the interest rate automatically bring in foreign capital, increasing the value of the dollar.
US Non Farm Payrolls.Amid fears of a “jobless recovery,” the market has become very sensitive to this indicator, which measures new jobs created in the US.
U.S. Current Account…
US Trade Balance.A measure of how much the US exports compared to how much it imports. To many net imports can drive the value of the dollar down, since more capital is leaving the US and being sold abroad, which drives down the value of the dollar.
US TIC Data .Treasury Inflow Capital is a measure of how much foreign buying of US securities is happening. This can offset an imbalance of too many imports, since money is coming to the US to purchase goods which drives the value of the dollar back up.
US Retail Sales. The US economy is largely driven by consumer demand. If this number is unhealthy, it can indicate a decline.
FOMC Minutes. The breakdown of Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Scoured for any clues about how the Fed perceives the state of the Economy. Since the Fed makes interest rate decisions, insight into their outlook can help the market predict the interest rate outlook.
Below are US News Ranking todate:-
NEWS CATEGORY: TARGET: STOPLOSS
1. NonFarm Payroll USA: 100 :30
2. FOMC Release:. 100: 40
3. Durrable Good: 45: 25
4. Bussines Inventories.: 45: 25
5. Initial Jobles Claim:. 45: 25
6. Trade Balance.: 60 :35
7. PPI USA: 60 :35
8. Personal Income: 60: 25
9. Consumer Confidence: 60: 35
10. Consumer Price Index: 45: 35
11. Chicago PMI: 60 35
12. Factory Order/Inventoris: 70: 35
13. Whosale Sales/inventoris: 40: 25
14. Univ Michigan Survey :30: 20
15. Home Sales: 30: 20
16. ISM Manufacturers: 70 :30
17. GDP : 90: 30
Popularity: 5% [?]
